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IMD Declares El Niño Emergence; Forecasts 10% Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall for India in 2026

EnvironmentHIGH
Target:UPSC GS-IIIMPSCTeachingSSC GAPrelims HighMains HighStatic GK Link
13 Jun 2026
~2 min
Source: Indian Express
Key Data:10% below-normal monsoon rainfallNiño 3.4 index +0.7°CSST >2°C for 'very strong' El NiñoPeak period Nov 2026–Jan 2027
Bodies:India Meteorological Department (IMD)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Practice MCQs from today's news ▸
What This Article Covers

1.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed El Niño's development on June 13, 2026, forecasting its strengthening during the southwest monsoon season.

2.The US-based NOAA predicts this El Niño will peak in the 'very strong' category (SST >2°C) during November 2026–January 2027, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral.

3.IMD forecasts a 10% deficit in seasonal rainfall for India (except the northeast), highlighting the direct climatic and agricultural implications for exam analysis.

The Big Picture
Prelims · HighMains · High

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially declared the onset of El Niño, predicting it will intensify during the southwest monsoon season. This development is crucial for exam aspirants as El Niño is historically linked to below-average rainfall in India, impacting agriculture, water resources, and the economy, forming a core topic in Environment and Geography sections.

Exam Lens

Quick Exam Facts From News

El Niño Declaration DateJune 13, 2026
Monsoon Rainfall Forecast (2026)10% below normal
Niño 3.4 Index (Latest Weekly)+0.7°C
El Niño Peak Period (NOAA)Nov 2026 – Jan 2027

1-Minute Revision

  • ›El Niño Declaration Date: June 13, 2026
  • ›Monsoon Rainfall Forecast (2026): 10% below normal
  • ›Target this Data: 10% below-normal monsoon rainfall forecast for 2026.
  • ›Target this Nodal Body: India Meteorological Department (IMD) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
  • ›Target this Threshold: El Niño declared when Niño 3.4 region SST exceeds +0.5°C; 'Very strong' category when it surpasses +2.0°C.

Mastered this topic? Test your knowledge with a full MCQ quiz.

Practice exam-style questions, track your score, and strengthen your recall.

1Static LinkageEasy

Which Indian government department is responsible for monitoring and declaring the onset of El Niño events as per the news?

2Statement-basedHard

Consider the following statements regarding the El Niño event discussed in the news:

1. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared its development a day after the US-based NOAA made it public.

2. A 'very strong' El Niño is categorized when the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius.

3. During El Niño years, climatologically, northeastern and extreme southern India receive normal rainfall while the rest of the country suffers below-normal rain.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

3Data-centricMedium

According to the IMD forecast mentioned in the article, what is the expected country-wide seasonal rainfall deficit for the southwest monsoon in 2026?

4Application/ImpactMedium

What is the primary climatic reason cited by the IMD for forecasting below-average rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season?

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